Finding Forrester

This post is Part I of a series examining the TV executive viewpoint outlined in Doug’s last post. This series should make it clear that the reports and analysis he presented do not support the assertion that online use hasn’t changed all that much. Rather, it will reveal that the landscape has changed, is changing, and will continue to change.

I believe that the corporate broadcasting executive view (as presented by Doug) is out of step with Forrester, with Gartner, and with present reality. Cancellations drive apathy, not enthusiasm. Instead of winning viewers back they push them away.

Broadcast networks appear to be resistant toward realizing that the landscape has changed and instead have a tendency to cling to an antiquated position forged from the anvil of entrenched historical practice. I think they would be wise to continue to move away from the sand that still engulfs their view (think of a large bird that likes sand) and take advantage of the opportunities that exist in a new digital media age.

This view appears to be maintained:

1. Through the inaccurate analysis of reports not directly or centrally related to the position in question.

2. By filtering recent and unprecedented phenomena through a rigid mesh of incongruent historical categories.

This post primarily examines the Forrester report titled, “Social Technographics”. This report advises companies to adapt and change to this socially transformed world. Further, it encourages them to adopt a more coherent approach toward social computing.

It is interesting and pertinent to note that this initial report was later expanded into a book titled, “Groundswell: Winning in a World Transformed by Social Technologies” with a publish date of April 21, 2008.

Groundswell is described in part by one of the authors as, “a book about a very powerful trend that is happening right now, the trend of people connecting with and drawing power from each other online, and how that threatens corporations" (You can see this here).

In contrast, it appears that the corporate executive would have us believe that the book should be titled, “Status Quo: Doing Business in a World That Hasn’t Changed All That Much”.

Advertising Age, in an article dated June 2nd, 2008 gives background information about Charlene Li (the author of the Forrester report) which provides additional insight.

“‘Charlene is a pivotal force in helping marketers navigate tectonic disruptions heralded in by social media,’ says Max Kalehoff, VP-marketing at Clickable.

‘She has an uncanny ability to instill calm and real understanding of the threats and opportunities inherent in a world composed of savvy, connected consumers.’

Asked to grade how marketers are facing up to those changes, Ms. Li gives them a C.

‘They're treating it more like a marketing channel than a relationship-building opportunity,’ she says, adding that a big roadblock is corporate cultures that aren't built to handle the lack of control over brand or message or even product development in a consumer-controlled environment.

‘Marketers are horrible at getting close to customers,’ she says. ‘They say they want it, but they don't.’”

At the bedrock level, both the Forrester report and the subsequent book maintain that the landscape has changed and that businesses need to adapt.

Ms. Li gives such an excellent summation of the divide between a corporate culture that still pines for the way it used to be and the ever increasingly consumer-controlled environment.

And now the kicker.

Intrepid reader, you may want to strap on your seatbelt and brace yourself. The next stop is the Forrester report, “Consumer’s Behavior Online: A Deep Dive”.

Are you ready to dive in…?

Here is the summary:

“Forrester tracks more than 150 activities, diving deep into 38 common and emerging media, shopping, communications, entertainment, and social networking online activities. The results are sometimes surprising. For example, shopping is only an occasional activity; receiving photos via email is the fastest-growing activity; instant messaging use is growing only among younger consumers; and PC time has surpassed TV time, even among Gen Xers. But the real value of tracking online behavior is that it helps interactive marketers and tech product marketers identify and target the best consumer segments”.

Houston, hold the horses, I think we just discovered the true Forrester.

Wow! PC time has surpassed…? TV? How can this be? And this report is dated January 2007?

It must be that… that… aberrant youthful generation. But wait…
This is true… even among Gen Xers?! According to Forrester, it is (and they aren’t alone).

Stay tuned for the next post in this series… “Category Confusion: Gartner, the Federal Census Bureau, and You!”